At the beginning of the week I suggested that Russia might have learned a lesson from the American invasion of Iraq.[^1] One lesson that Russia clearly did not learn was the importance of world opinion. The Bush administration paid a high price for thumbing its nose at allies and friends who opposed the invasion. It did not believe in soft power, but its significant diminution was real nonetheless. Russia’s actions will cost it dearly if it continues to allow its armored vehicles to rumble around Georgia, far away from South Ossetia. Remember that breakaway province? Wasn’t defending it Russia’s casus belli? Sometimes states have to ignore international opinion, but it is important to balance whatever one hopes thereby to gain against what one is going to lose. Russia has more to lose because of its pugnacious behavior than it thinks. It might believe that its interests lie in observing a “jail house yard” code of behavior, and following this model might net it some short-term gains; however, in the long run it will lose more than it can gain. Naked force is a poor substitute for hearts and minds. It is an even worse substitute if those hearts and minds stand behind an opposing force. Hubris is a dangerous thing, Mr. Putin. That’s the real lesson of Iraq.

[^1:] The post I reference here has gone missing. – MRS, 11/3/2024